The clouds of crisis from July still loom over the skies of Dhaka. Amid ongoing political instability, Bangladesh witnessed a significant diplomatic moment during the four-day visit of United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. The Trump administration's global aid reductions have already raised concerns among developing countries, and Guterres’s arrival in Dhaka at such a time has sparked fresh debates in diplomatic circles. Most notably, his visit revived discussions on the long-stagnant Rohingya crisis on international forums. But the question remains: Was his visit merely a diplomatic "symbolic gesture," or does it mark the beginning of tangible steps toward Rohingya repatriation and democratic reforms in Bangladesh?
The centerpiece of Guterres's visit was his trip to the Rohingya camps in Cox’s Bazar. Through a "Solidarity Iftar" at the temporary shelters housing over 1.2 million Rohingyas, Guterres conveyed a message of humanitarian solidarity. However, the steadfast position of Myanmar's military junta and the international community's inertia remain undeniable obstacles. Guterres himself acknowledged the ongoing civil war in Myanmar, particularly the conflict between the Arakan Army and the Tatmadaw (Myanmar military), as a key barrier to Rohingya repatriation. Interestingly, Guterres suggested that the Arakan Army should also be included in the negotiations. This is a contentious proposal, as Myanmar’s government has long labeled this group as insurgents. Will this shift in stance from Guterres make the UN more active on the Rohingya issue, or will it create new tensions in Myanmar relations?
In the context of the reduction in USAID, food insecurity has reached a crisis point for the Rohingyas. According to the World Food Programme (WFP), as of June 2023, food rations for the refugees were cut by 32%, and this could rise to 50% by August. In light of this, Guterres proposed using Bangladesh as a humanitarian corridor to send aid to Myanmar, a bold initiative. However, this plan faces significant risks, as China and Russia, who have supported the Myanmar junta, may exercise their veto power in the UN Security Council.
But Guterres's visit wasn’t just limited to the Rohingya issue. His discussions with the National Dialogue Commission and major political parties in Bangladesh indicated the UN's interest in the country’s internal politics. BNP Secretary-General Mirza Fakhrul’s statement that "reforms must be completed and elections held swiftly," and Jamaat leader Mia Golam Parwar's call for "national unity," point to the deepening trust deficit between the government and the opposition.
Can the UN mediate in Bangladesh's political crisis? Former diplomat M. Humayun Kabir believes Guterres' support is essentially moral, and that the responsibility for internal reforms rests with Bangladesh's political parties. On the other hand, international relations expert Dr. Imtiaz Ahmed has warned that global powers might try to exert influence over Bangladesh’s electoral process, creating a risk to its sovereignty.
Another crucial aspect behind Guterres’s visit is the shifting balance of global power. With the reduction of USAID, Bangladesh needs to explore alternatives, especially as China and India’s influence grows. Bangladesh has already actively participated in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and strengthened defense and trade relations with India. Could Guterres’s visit serve as a strategy for Bangladesh to balance relations between Western powers and Asian giants?
The complexity of the Myanmar issue only adds to this challenge. While China and Russia continue to back Myanmar’s junta, India is increasing its investments in Rakhine State due to commercial and geopolitical interests. Is it possible to secure India and China’s agreement on the proposed "humanitarian corridor," or will it lead to another diplomatic stalemate?
Foreign Affairs Adviser of Bangladesh Touhid Hossain has called Guterres’s visit "historic." Yet, the reality remains that no significant progress has been made on the Rohingya repatriation issue. Since 2017, only around 1,100 Rohingyas have been sent back to Myanmar under the guise of repatriation, the majority of whom have returned due to fear of persecution. While Guterres’ visit shifted the blame for this failure to Myanmar, the UN’s inability to implement the International Court of Justice’s (ICJ) ruling remains a subject of criticism.
Meanwhile, the strain of hosting the Rohingyas on Bangladesh's economy is becoming unsustainable. According to the World Bank, Bangladesh spends approximately $1.2 billion annually on supporting the Rohingyas, which accounts for about 30% of the funds needed to address climate change challenges. The absence of climate financing commitments during Guterres's visit has left many environmentalists disappointed.
Guterres' trip to Dhaka revealed both the limitations and potential of the United Nations. In light of the UN's failures during the Ukraine war and its inertia regarding Myanmar, many see his role in the Rohingya issue as more of a "moral stance." However, there is a silver lining: his active presence in the Rohingya camps managed to draw international media attention back to the crisis. Global outlets such as Reuters, Al Jazeera, and the BBC have begun covering the issue once again, which could put additional pressure on Myanmar.
Bangladesh is currently facing several critical challenges. First, finding a permanent solution to the Rohingya crisis requires strengthening diplomatic talks with Myanmar and creating a regional framework with China and India’s mediation. Second, the need for internal political dialogue, aimed at restoring trust between the government and opposition and ensuring an inclusive electoral process, is pressing. Third, securing climate financing by strongly presenting Bangladesh’s demands at COP-28 and holding developed countries accountable is crucial. Fourth, Bangladesh must seek alternative sources of aid as US assistance wanes, increasing economic partnerships with Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the European Union. Lastly, Bangladesh must work towards raising global awareness about the Rohingya crisis by engaging international media.
Guterres’s visit could have marked a significant milestone for Bangladesh, if it had translated into concrete diplomatic action beyond symbolic gestures. However, history shows that in the fight for justice, the UN often falls short when powerful countries’ interests are at play. Bangladesh must now focus on developing an independent diplomatic strategy, reducing dependence on international cooperation. In tackling complex issues like the Rohingya crisis, the country needs "action-oriented leadership" rather than "silent diplomacy."
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