In a quiet bureaucratic move that escaped major headlines, the United States recently removed several Myanmar military-linked business elites from its sanctions list. The decision—posted without fanfare by the US Treasury Department—has drawn sharp criticism from human rights groups and Myanmar’s embattled pro-democracy movement. But behind the backlash lies a deeper, more calculated geopolitical maneuver that signals Washington’s strategic recalibration in the Indo-Pacific.
The move, though not unprecedented, is significant. Since Myanmar’s 2021 military coup, Washington has been among the most vocal critics of the junta, imposing successive rounds of sanctions on top generals and military-aligned businesses. The recent rollback, however, appears to mark a subtle shift: one that de-emphasizes Myanmar’s domestic repression in favor of broader regional positioning—especially vis-à-vis China.
The Quiet Pivot: Why Now?
Two key developments preceded the delisting. First, a letter from Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, was sent to former US President Donald Trump, full of praise and overtures—including proposed tariff relief and a plea for sanctions rollback. Then, the US Treasury delisted several individuals linked to military-affiliated companies, particularly in logistics, mining, and tech sectors.
The move did not come with any formal justification. No improvements in Myanmar’s human rights situation were cited—because there have been none. On the contrary, violence in Rakhine and Sagaing continues to escalate, ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya remains unresolved, and the junta’s legitimacy remains broadly rejected internationally.
Myanmar: A Strategic Chessboard
Geopolitically, Myanmar occupies a critical position. Wedged between China, India, Bangladesh, and the Bay of Bengal, the country sits at the intersection of competing spheres of influence. Its coastline, particularly through the Kyaukpyu deep-sea port and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC), is integral to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China has long invested in Myanmar’s infrastructure, including pipelines, railways, and special economic zones that bypass the Malacca Strait—a critical chokepoint in global maritime trade.
From Washington’s perspective, China’s expanding presence in Myanmar is not merely economic—it’s strategic. Beijing has built ties with both the junta and various ethnic armed groups, ensuring its influence no matter who holds power in Naypyidaw. It’s also entrenching control over Myanmar’s lucrative rare earth mineral supply chains, essential for global electronics, batteries, and defense technologies. Currently, China controls over 90% of global rare earth processing, and Myanmar’s largely unregulated mines provide a vital upstream source.
For the United States, this poses a critical vulnerability. If Beijing dominates both production and processing, Washington's efforts to reduce its dependency on Chinese minerals are significantly undermined. Thus, engagement with Myanmar—even if symbolic or opportunistic—becomes less about political morality and more about resource access and regional influence.
Sanctions Relief: A Realpolitik Calculation
Experts in grand strategy and international realism, like John Mearsheimer and Hal Brands, have long argued that values-based diplomacy often gives way to hard strategic calculus in global affairs. The lifting of sanctions fits this mold. It does not signal a softening toward the junta, but rather a pragmatic effort to “stay in the room”—to engage, hedge, and prepare for a Myanmar that could tilt further into China’s orbit without Western involvement.
There is also a forward-looking element. As Myanmar’s internal conflict worsens, and the military loses ground to ethnic armed groups and People’s Defense Forces (PDFs), the regime may fracture. When that happens, Washington will want lines of communication not just with exiled democracy activists, but also with military-linked actors who control ground realities. Removing select sanctions could be a form of diplomatic hedging—creating channels without overtly endorsing the regime.
Implications for the Region
The message resonates across South and Southeast Asia. For regional powers like Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka, the US move signals a willingness to be flexible and transactional, rather than strictly ideological. This may appeal to governments juggling their own balancing acts between Beijing and Washington.
But the optics are fraught. To rights defenders and Myanmar’s pro-democracy actors, it signals abandonment. The delisting undermines years of international advocacy that framed sanctions as a non-violent tool for accountability. It raises fears that justice for war crimes, including those committed against the Rohingya, may be bartered away in the name of strategic advantage.
The US delisting of Myanmar junta-linked figures is a microcosm of 21st-century great power politics—where morality is contingent, alliances are flexible, and natural resources dictate policy. The decision wasn’t about rewarding the junta. It was about containing China, accessing rare earths, and preparing for a future in which ignoring Myanmar is no longer an option.
It is, in essence, a grim but familiar trade-off: strategic leverage over democratic ideals. And for a nation like Myanmar—beset by civil war, authoritarianism, and external exploitation—it’s a reminder that in geopolitics, domestic suffering often becomes collateral in the pursuit of global balance.
BOB Post
