Myanmar's military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, will travel to China this week to attend high-level regional summits, marking his first visit to the neighboring powerhouse since taking control in a 2021 coup. The visit comes as Myanmar grapples with an escalating civil conflict and widespread instability, particularly along its border with China, where armed resistance groups have gained significant ground against the junta.

Min Aung Hlaing’s visit will center around participation in the Greater Mekong Subregion and the Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) summits in Kunming, where he will meet with leaders from Cambodia, Laos, and Vietnam on November 6 and 7. Myanmar’s state broadcaster MRTV reports that the junta leader is expected to hold talks with Chinese authorities to strengthen bilateral ties, with a focus on economic and developmental cooperation.

Since the coup, China has watched the deterioration of Myanmar’s military control with mounting concern. The chaos has not only disrupted stability along their shared border but has also affected China’s significant economic interests in Myanmar, including oil and gas pipelines, rare earth imports, and the proposed deep-sea port on the Bay of Bengal. In response to the growing conflict, China has reinforced its border security and restricted imports to areas under rebel control.

"China’s interests are strategic," explains David Mathieson, an analyst on Myanmar. "Whether Min Aung Hlaing seeks increased support or faces pressure from Beijing, it spells hardship for the people."

China has openly supported the junta’s political roadmap, which includes a controversial national election scheduled for next year despite the junta's limited territorial control. Following a nationwide census last month aimed at facilitating this election, Beijing pledged technical assistance, further cementing its role in the process. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit in August underscored Beijing’s backing, a stance that has sparked criticism from pro-democracy activists who see China’s support as an impediment to their fight against military rule.

As Myanmar’s junta struggles with fierce resistance, Min Aung Hlaing’s discussions with China could shape the future of both the conflict and the region, underscoring China’s influential role in the country’s unfolding crisis.

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