Myanmar’s military government has extended its state of emergency for another six months, struggling to retain control amid escalating conflicts across the country.

The military-controlled National Defence and Security Council renewed the emergency rule during a meeting in the capital Naypyidaw on Friday, just a day before the four-year anniversary of the coup that ended a decade of democratic reforms.

“All members of the council, including the commander-in-chief and acting president, unanimously decided to extend the state of emergency for another six months under Section 425 of the 2008 Constitution,” the military announced in a statement.

State-run MRTV justified the decision, stating that “stability and peace” were still required to conduct a “free and fair election.”

Mounting Pressure on Myanmar’s Junta

Myanmar has been in crisis since February 1, 2021, when the military ousted the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government, arresting its leader Aung San Suu Kyi. The military justified the coup with unproven claims of voter fraud in the 2020 elections, which the NLD had won in a landslide.

Initially imposing a one-year state of emergency, the military has repeatedly extended it, while cracking down on pro-democracy protests and fighting a growing armed resistance movement.

A Military Under Siege

Despite holding power, Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Hlaing, who also serves as Myanmar’s self-appointed prime minister and president, has faced severe setbacks. Since late 2023, the military has suffered significant territorial losses in the north and west, with the United States Institute of Peace calling the situation an “unprecedented crisis” for the junta.

While Min Aung Hlaing had promised elections by August 2023, the intensifying insurgency has forced repeated delays. However, with both domestic and international pressure mounting, the military is now expected to hold national elections by late 2025.

A Controversial Election Looms

Under the 2008 military-drafted constitution, elections must be held within six months after the emergency rule ends—now scheduled for July 31. Opposition groups, however, have vowed to disrupt the elections, dismissing them as an attempt to legitimize military rule.

Richard Horsey, Myanmar adviser to the Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that signs increasingly point to elections being held later this year, with November being the most likely month.

“The National Defence and Security Council is set to meet on July 31, or sooner, to potentially end the state of emergency,” Horsey said. “That would then give them six months to organize the polls.”

If the elections proceed, analysts suggest it will mark a return to rule under the 2008 constitution, a move that Myanmar’s military and its key ally, China, are likely to welcome.

“A return to the 2008 constitution could bring more predictability and fewer erratic decisions from Min Aung Hlaing,” Horsey added.