Opium poppy cultivation in Myanmar has surged to its highest level in a decade, reinforcing the country’s position as the world’s leading source of illicit opium amid deepening civil conflict, according to the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC). The Myanmar Opium Survey 2025, released Wednesday, shows cultivation expanding 17% from last year to 531 square kilometers, the largest area recorded since 2015.

The boom comes as Afghanistan’s output has plummeted following the Taliban’s 2021 ban, prompting fears of new global supply routes. According to Euro News, there are already signs that heroin originating from Myanmar is reaching European markets traditionally supplied by Afghanistan, with several recent seizures involving passengers travelling from Southeast Asia to Europe. While current volumes remain small, analysts say the trend points to a widening search for alternative sources to fill the vacuum left by Afghanistan’s collapse in production.

UNODC officials warn that soaring opium prices are a major factor luring impoverished farmers back into poppy cultivation. Fresh opium now sells for about $329 per kilogram, more than double its 2019 value, driving the estimated value of Myanmar’s opium economy to between $641 million and $1.05 billion, up to 1.4% of the country’s GDP. Despite conflict-related disruptions causing a 13% decline in average yields, total production still rose by 1% to roughly 1,010 metric tons.

“This major expansion in cultivation shows the extent to which the opium economy has re-established itself and points to potential further growth,” said Delphine Schantz, UNODC Representative for Southeast Asia and the Pacific. She noted that Myanmar’s ongoing civil war, widespread poverty, and the absence of viable livelihoods continue to push farmers deeper into illicit cultivation.

Beyond opium, Myanmar remains the world’s largest producer of methamphetamine, much of it manufactured in industrial-scale labs scattered across the “Golden Triangle,” a region spanning Myanmar, Laos and Thailand long known for drug trafficking due to minimal state control and entrenched militia networks.

UNODC warns that without meaningful economic alternatives, both opium and synthetic drug production are likely to expand further, fueling regional instability and reshaping global narcotics flows.

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