A UN expert warned on July 4 that Myanmar's Rakhine State is on the verge of a catastrophe that is uncannily similar to the circumstances leading up to the "genocidal violence" against the Rohingya minority eight years ago. Thomas Andrews, the special rapporteur on the situation in Myanmar, voiced serious concerns about the recent events in the volatile western area during a speech to the UN Human Rights Council.

"The situation in Rakhine State, where the junta is rapidly losing territory to the Arakan Army, is terrifying," cautioned Andrews. "For the Rohingya people—oppressed, scapegoated, exploited, and caught between warring factions—the current situation echoes the lead-up to the genocidal violence of 2016 and 2017."

Since November, clashes have escalated in Rakhine State following the Arakan Army (AA)'s attack on security forces, breaking a ceasefire that had largely held since a military coup in 2021 ended a brief democratic period. The AA fighters have gained control of significant territory, intensifying pressure on the junta as it faces resistance elsewhere.

Andrews, an independent expert appointed by the rights council, highlighted a disturbing development: "The military has been conscripting thousands of Rohingya youth and mobilizing them against the Arakan Army. Despite these young men being forced to the front lines against their will, the potential for retaliation by the Arakan community and a downward spiral of violence is enormous."

Reports have surfaced of rights violations by AA soldiers against Rohingya civilians amid an extremely dire humanitarian situation for both Rohingya and Rakhine people. Tens of thousands, if not more, have been displaced in Rakhine State.

In May, the AA claimed to have seized the town of Buthidaung in northern Rakhine, a region home to many Rohingya Muslims. Subsequently, several Rohingya diaspora groups accused the AA of forcing Rohingya to flee, then looting and burning their homes—allegations the AA dismissed as "propaganda."

The AA, which asserts it is fighting for autonomy for Rakhine's ethnic population, has vowed to capture the entire state. Andrews emphasized the need for international vigilance and action, warning that the signs of impending genocidal violence are clear and must not be ignored.