The International Crisis Group (ICG) has identified five major challenges awaiting Bangladesh’s newly elected government: reforming state institutions, generating employment, managing strained relations with India, tackling extremism, and determining the political future of the Awami League. Alongside these, the Rohingya repatriation issue and the growing climate crisis have also been marked as pressing national concerns.

The findings were outlined in an analytical article written by Thomas Kean, the Crisis Group’s Senior Consultant for Bangladesh and Myanmar Affairs, published Monday on the organization’s official website. Titled “Bangladesh’s Interim Government Bows Out: Elections Draw Near,” the report highlights the fragile state of Bangladesh’s institutions, a sluggish economy, and the worsening impacts of climate change as mounting pressures on the incoming government.

The report underscores that balancing foreign policy amid intensifying U.S.-China rivalry, managing relations with India, and addressing the uncertain future of over one million Rohingya refugees currently residing along the Myanmar border have made the situation increasingly complex. It further expresses concern over the potential resurgence of hardline Islamist groups such as Hizb ut-Tahrir and questions the state’s capacity to contain extremism following the ouster of Sheikh Hasina.

According to Crisis Group, failure to meet the expectations of the youth could emerge as a significant source of future instability. Nearly half of Bangladesh’s population is under 30, with many struggling to find jobs aligned with their education and demanding not only employment but also transparency and equitable distribution of development benefits.

The report also points to political reconciliation as a critical challenge. It notes that due to its historical significance and large voter base, the Awami League cannot be permanently excluded from national politics. However, without expressing remorse for the violence of 2024, the party’s reintegration into the political landscape will remain difficult. The Crisis Group suggests that mediation from influential regional powers, particularly India, could play a role in facilitating this process.

While the newly elected government holds greater legitimacy, the report cautions that its workload will be extensive. The ICG urges Bangladesh’s international partners to extend constructive support as the country embarks on a new political chapter.

The Crisis Group also credited the outgoing interim administration for certain achievements, including maintaining economic stability, promoting political consensus, and introducing the July Charter, a reform blueprint endorsed by 25 political parties encompassing 84 proposals. However, the report criticized the slow pace of police and security sector reform, continued mob violence, and rising public frustration over impunity. It added that the upcoming constitutional referendum scheduled for election day will determine the future of these reforms, contingent largely on the political will of the next government.

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