Four years after seizing power in a military coup, Myanmar's ruling generals are making their most determined effort yet to gain legitimacy by pushing for a new election. Despite an ongoing civil war and widespread resistance, the junta has outlined its plans for a 2025 ballot, claiming it is working to ensure ‘stability’ ahead of the vote.

In recent months, the military leadership has shared its election plans with neighboring countries, released census data to prepare voter lists, and insisted that conditions will be stable enough to conduct the polls. However, with the military steadily losing ground to armed resistance forces and opposition groups, the proposed election is widely expected to be fraught with violence and controversy.

A Highly Contested Vote

The junta has yet to announce an official election date but has indicated that voting will take place in only 160-170 of Myanmar's 330 townships. Many areas remain outside the military’s control, with armed resistance groups holding significant territory, particularly in border regions. Critics argue that with opposition parties banned and only pre-approved pro-military groups allowed to participate, the election will be nothing more than a sham.
A full census was conducted in just 145 townships, according to data published in December, highlighting the junta’s difficulties in administering even the basic prerequisites for a fair election. Sources close to the discussions in the capital, Naypyidaw, say the military is determined to push ahead, despite widespread opposition.

Resistance and Rising Tensions

Armed opposition forces, including ethnic armies and newly formed resistance groups, have been steadily gaining ground since the 2021 coup. The National Unity Government (NUG), a shadow administration made up of remnants of Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) and other anti-junta factions, has outlined a 12-point plan to counter the election effort. The strategy includes advocating against the vote in local communities, blocking election commissions, and strengthening alliances with armed resistance groups.
While the NUG has not publicly commented on the specifics of its plan, spokesman Kyaw Zaw reaffirmed that military operations against the junta would continue.
"But we will not instruct our people, our defense forces to target civilians," he told Reuters.
However, analysts and diplomatic sources warn that the elections could trigger a surge in violence, with the risk of polling stations, officials, and candidates being targeted by opposition forces.
"There is a very real danger these elections could turn into a bloodbath if revolutionary forces decide to attack polling stations, election officials, and party candidates," said David Mathieson, an independent Myanmar analyst.

Humanitarian Crisis Worsens

The ongoing conflict has already taken a devastating toll on Myanmar’s population, with millions struggling to survive amid economic collapse and widespread displacement. By the summer of 2025, an estimated 15 million people are expected to face acute levels of food insecurity, according to a Reuters report.
Despite the worsening humanitarian crisis, the junta remains focused on pushing ahead with its election plan. However, regional leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) have urged the military to prioritize ending hostilities and engaging in dialogue rather than pursuing an election that could further inflame tensions.
As Myanmar approaches the fourth anniversary of the coup, the country remains deeply divided. With a fierce armed resistance determined to undermine the junta’s efforts at legitimacy, and an election that many view as a pretense for continued military rule, the coming months are likely to be among the most volatile in Myanmar’s recent history.
 

BOB Post