The military council of Myanmar has faced significant setbacks in conducting a nationwide census in 2024, particularly in the conflict-ridden Rakhine State, where 86 percent of the population was excluded from the process, according to a media report.
The military's latest statement, issued on (December 3), revealed that out of Rakhine State's estimated population of 2,466,385, only 345,431 individuals—approximately 14 percent—were recorded. The majority, totaling 2,120,954 people, could not be included due to intense fighting and limited access.

Limited Census Coverage

The military council managed to collect data only in the relatively stable areas of Kyauk Phyu and Man Aung City. Nationwide, the census reached just 145 out of Myanmar’s 330 townships, achieving only 44 percent coverage. This partial data, however, is being positioned by the military as a basis for upcoming elections.

Elections Amid Conflict

Despite the widespread failure of the census, Myanmar’s military leader, in his 2025 New Year address, reaffirmed the plan to hold elections later this year. Veteran Rakhine politician U Pe Than expressed skepticism, citing the United League of Arakan (ULA) as the dominant force in Rakhine State. He argued that the ULA’s governance leaves little room for military-led elections and cautioned that a multi-party election could sow divisions among the Rakhine people.
"The organization of the Rakhine people cannot be disintegrated at this time," U Pe Than said. "If the region remains under ULA rule, guaranteed rights will be maintained."

Historical Context

This is not the first time Myanmar has faced challenges in conducting a comprehensive census. The last nationwide census in 2014, under the administration of U Thein Sein, also left nearly 1.2 million people uncounted, especially in Rakhine, Karen, and Kachin states.

Broader Implications
A political science student from Thailand highlighted the military council’s intent behind the census, stating, "The military council claims the census is accurate to justify holding elections. However, with increased revolutionary forces, the military’s control over the country will likely shrink further in the coming months."

Population Count Discrepancy
The 2024 census places Myanmar’s population at 51.3 million, a figure that has raised questions due to the exclusion of vast portions of the population, particularly in conflict zones such as Rakhine, Chin, Sagaing, and Shan states.
As the military prepares for elections amidst growing territorial losses and an incomplete census, the legitimacy of the process remains under scrutiny. Many observers believe that the coming year will see heightened tensions and intensified battles between the military and revolutionary forces, casting further doubt on the feasibility of nationwide elections.
 

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