Oil prices edged lower on Monday as ample global supplies outweighed geopolitical jitters following the United States’ dramatic weekend operation that led to the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

Brent crude futures fell 21 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $60.54 a barrel by early Asian trading, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 28 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $57.04 a barrel. Both benchmarks were volatile in early trade, briefly recovering from initial losses before turning lower again as markets digested developments in Venezuela.

The price swings came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Washington had detained Maduro in New York and would take control of the oil-producing nation, while keeping a full embargo on Venezuelan oil in place. According to Reuters, traders said the market reaction remained muted as investors focused more on the broader supply picture than on immediate political shocks.

Analysts noted that Venezuela’s oil sector has already been heavily constrained by years of sanctions and underinvestment, limiting the near-term impact of further disruptions. “In a market with plentiful supply, additional Venezuelan outages do not materially tighten balances in the short run,” analysts said, adding that sentiment remains cautious rather than alarmed.

Goldman Sachs, in a January 4 note, said risks to oil prices from Venezuela were “ambiguous but modest” in the near term, depending largely on how U.S. sanctions policy evolves, and kept its 2026 oil price forecasts unchanged.

Meanwhile, senior figures in Maduro’s government, who described the detention of Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores as a kidnapping, said they remained in control and vowed unity. Still, analysts warned that a potential regime change could ultimately pressure prices by unlocking future supply. JP Morgan said such a shift would represent “one of the largest upside risks to the global oil supply outlook for 2026–2027 and beyond.”

Helima Croft, head of commodities research at RBC Capital Markets, said full sanctions relief could eventually allow Venezuela to bring several hundred thousand barrels per day back to the market, though this would take time.

Trump also warned that the United States could launch a second strike on Venezuela if remaining officials failed to cooperate, raising fears of prolonged instability. “All bets are off in a chaotic change of power scenario like Libya or Iraq,” Croft said.

On the supply side, OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to maintain current output levels, reinforcing the view that the market remains well supplied. Analysts are also monitoring tensions involving Iran after Trump threatened intervention over protests there, adding another layer of geopolitical uncertainty.

For now, however, traders appear to be betting that global supply buffers are strong enough to absorb shocks, keeping oil prices under pressure despite rising political risks.

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