The Arakan Army (AA), part of the Three Brotherhood Coalition or the 3BHA, recently claimed control of Paletwa, a strategic trade town in the west. This marks another setback for the military, which seized power in 2021, triggering a civil war.

The Three Brotherhood Coalition comprises three ethnic armed groups: the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). The AA, founded in 2009, boasts around 30,000 soldiers and aims to restore the sovereignty of the multi-ethnic Arakanese in Rakhine state.

The MNDAA operates near the Chinese border in northern Shan state, advocating for autonomy for the Kokang people. The TNLA, formed in 1992, fights for "real federalism" in Myanmar. Together, they make up the Three Brotherhood Alliance, formed in 2019.

Since the military coup on February 1, 2021, and the subsequent crackdown, the alliance condemned the killing of peaceful protesters and joined forces with the People’s Defence Forces (PDF), aligned with the National Unity Government (NUG). The NUG, recognized by the European Union, has gained popular support in Myanmar.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance recorded successes in 2021, forcing government troops to retreat from Namphan in December. However, its major victories came in 2023 with "Operation 1027," where over 10,000 fighters coordinated large-scale assaults, resulting in the capture of major towns and military posts in Shan state.

Despite ongoing military offensives, the alliance's gains have bolstered the campaign to restore democracy in Myanmar. In November, PDF forces took control of Kawlin, marking the military's first defeat in a capital district. The military responded with air raids, ground troops, and the "four cuts" policy, causing mass displacements and civilian casualties.

Between October 26 and December 8, over 578,000 people were newly displaced, adding to the existing 2 million displaced before the October offensives. At least 363 civilians have died, and 461 have been injured since late October, according to the United Nations.

While the alliance's recent gains and social media presence may dent the military's reputation, experts suggest possible backing from China due to the scope of "Operation 1027." However, China brokered a ceasefire agreement on January 12, raising uncertainties about the alliance's future actions.

The situation remains fluid, with the taking of Paletwa indicating a continuation of the conflict and the alliance's determination to challenge military rule in Myanmar.

BOB Post