The United States has placed online scam networks, narcotics trafficking, illegal migration and economic interests at the centre of its new strategy for Myanmar, while seeking greater influence over the country's political future and regional affairs.

The strategy also sets an ambitious target of tripling imports of US goods and agricultural products from Myanmar by 2030, securing major commercial deals and supporting efforts to end the country's prolonged conflict through a nationwide peace process.

According to the US Mission to Burma's Integrated Country Strategy, approved on August 31, Washington plans to strengthen law enforcement cooperation with Myanmar authorities and regional partners to disrupt criminal networks, particularly online scam operations and narcotics trafficking. It also intends to pursue a law enforcement cooperation agreement to improve its ability to tackle scam centres operating from Myanmar.

The document identifies Myanmar as a source of transnational security threats, with particular emphasis on online fraud, drug trafficking and irregular migration. It also reveals Washington's intention to bring the visa overstay rate among Myanmar nationals in the United States down to zero. The report states that Myanmar nationals had a 38 per cent overstay rate for B-1/B-2 visa holders in fiscal year 2024, describing it as a challenge to US border security.

Beyond security, Washington's priorities expose a strong economic dimension to its engagement with Myanmar. The strategy aims to secure at least three commercial or investment agreements worth more than $5 million each and triple imports of American goods and agricultural products by the end of 2030. The US Mission also plans to press Myanmar authorities to improve import licensing procedures and foreign exchange allocation, which the document identifies as major obstacles to American businesses.

On the political front, the United States intends to support a durable ceasefire and facilitate negotiations towards a lasting peace agreement by July 2030. However, the strategy makes clear that peace-building is also tied to Washington's broader geopolitical and commercial calculations. It specifically calls for reducing divisions among state, local and ethnic opposition groups to prepare for nationwide negotiations, increase American influence and create opportunities for US investment over other regional actors.

The strategy further proposes at least three multistakeholder forums to develop concrete agreements or policy proposals on fiscal federalism and territorial demarcation. Notably, the document links these political initiatives to opportunities to access Myanmar's rare earth resources and combat scam centres, raising questions about how Washington intends to balance its stated peace objectives with its strategic and economic interests.

Myanmar's position between China and India also features prominently in the US assessment. Washington describes the country as strategically important and identifies expanding its diplomatic, economic and public engagement as a priority to counter China's influence and strengthen its position in the Indo-Pacific.

The humanitarian component of the strategy carries similar geopolitical calculations. The US Mission aims to ensure that American assistance, combined with contributions from partners, reaches at least 50 per cent, or three million, of Myanmar's most vulnerable people. At the same time, it seeks greater visibility for US-funded programmes to establish Washington as the leading humanitarian donor in the country and counter the influence of rival donors.

The document also places importance on coordination with regional partners, including Australia, India, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN, to advance American priorities on peace, security and economic engagement.

While Washington presents the strategy as an effort to promote stability, humanitarian assistance and a peaceful settlement, its objectives go beyond addressing Myanmar's conflict and humanitarian crisis. The explicit linkage between political negotiations, access to natural resources, commercial opportunities and competition with regional powers suggests that the country's future is also being viewed through the lens of American strategic interests.

BOB Post